Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

The three biggest planning challenges are predicting costs, assessing profitability, and risk management. All these tasks occur in the early stages of capital planning and failure to adequately evaluate these elements can lead to heavy losses. This Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis training course will highlight: - Identification of the stages required in the risk analysis process, i.e., preparing, modeling, and running risk analysis - Development of the risk model, assessing probabilities to various variables, risk analysis, and explore the impact of uncertain variables - Enable the participants to create reports such as, tornadoes diagrams, scatter plots and cumulative probability functions, using excel - Application of decision trees and Monte Carlo-based simulations to generate profitability indicators - Enable the participants to develop probabilistic cashflow reports along with probabilistic profitability indicators for decision-making

AGRC-002Auditing and Governance Risk and Compliance

Course schedules

Upcoming dates Classroom

Start date	End date	Location	Fee	Registration
Schedule information is available on request.

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Why Attend

The three biggest planning challenges are predicting costs, assessing profitability, and risk management.

All these tasks occur in the early stages of capital planning and failure to adequately evaluate these elements can lead to heavy losses.

This Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis training course will highlight:

Identification of the stages required in the risk analysis process, i.e., preparing, modeling, and running risk analysis
Development of the risk model, assessing probabilities to various variables, risk analysis, and explore the impact of uncertain variables
Enable the participants to create reports such as, tornadoes diagrams, scatter plots and cumulative probability functions, using excel
Application of decision trees and Monte Carlo-based simulations to generate profitability indicators
Enable the participants to develop probabilistic cashflow reports along with probabilistic profitability indicators for decision-making

Course Objectives

Learn how to handle uncertainty in projects
Understand different economic terms
Understand the expected value concept and learn its impact on decision tree analysis
Learn expected theory concepts and attitudes towards risk, risk eversion and risk premium
Acquire spreadsheet skills including simulation software @RISK
Carry out cashflow analysis for project and use common economic indicators to evaluate between competing alternatives
Carry out a comprehensive economic study evaluating projects using risk and sensitivity analysis by means of spreadsheets

Designed for

This program is intended for professionals involved in Auditing and Governance Risk and Compliance.

Planning Managers
Project Managers
Analysts
Commercial Managers
Economists
Government Officials
Geologists
Business Advisors
Asset Managers
E&P Managers
Product Managers
Project Management Professionals

Course Methodology

This Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis training course will incorporate a mix of learning methods, including but not limited to, high quality power point slides, short videos and active class participation. An in-depth knowledge of quantitative risk analysis techniques and hands-on problem solving skills will be developed during this training course . Participants will use PC’s to solve a variety of problems better enabling them to utilize the taught material. This Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis training course approach will be facilitated using Microsoft Excel add on @Risk module and will further assist in promoting discussions among the participants.

Course content

Day1

Course Content

Development Economics - A brief history of energy usage - Principles of development economics - Understanding of economic terms - Inflation and its impact on nominal & real cashflows - Project financing Uncertainty in Investments - Handling uncertainty in capital projects - Understanding probability concepts - The expected value concept: features and pitfalls - Expected Monetary Value (EMV) - Expected Profitability Index (EPI) - Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) Risks and Uncertainties - Risk & uncertainty - Risk aversion and risk premium - Exploration project threats and opportunities - Economic decision criteria - Decision tree analysis - Probability distribution - Monte Carlo simulation Setting-up Spreadsheet Calculations Using Excel - Spreadsheet Calculations - Cashflow analysis - Sensitivity analysis calculations - Tornado diagrams - Introduction to Monte Carlo simulations using @Risk Practical Use of the @Risk add-on - Developing an integrated economic model - Developing and using an @Risk Model Analysis - Project sensitivity analysis utilizing data from @Risk Model - Training course final review and close

The certificate

SPARK Training Certificate of Completion is awarded to participants who attend and complete the full training course.