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Home Course Finder Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects
Oil and Gas

Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Decision Analysis in Petroleum Projects

Petroleum projects involve significant capital investment, technical uncertainty, and exposure to market and operational risks. Traditional deterministic approaches often fall short in capturing the full range of possible outcomes. This course introduces structured probabilistic techniques that enable professionals to quantify uncertainty, evaluate risk exposure, and make informed decisions. Participants will learn how to apply risk-based thinking to exploration, development, and production projects, improving both financial performance and operational resilience.

OG-011Barcelona - SpainOil and Gas
Course schedules
Upcoming dates Classroom
Start date End date Location Fee Registration
Barcelona - Spain
€1,925 + VAT
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Paris - France
€2,250 + VAT
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Munich - Germany
€2,125 + VAT
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Barcelona - Spain
€2,125 + VAT
→
Amsterdam - Netherlands
€2,125 + VAT
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London - United Kingdom
€2,100 + VAT
→
Munich - Germany
€2,125 + VAT
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Cape Town - South Africa
€2,125 + VAT
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5 - 9 October 2026 €1,050 + VAT → 16 - 20 November 2026 €1,050 + VAT → 7 - 11 December 2026 €1,050 + VAT → 21 - 25 December 2026 €1,050 + VAT → 11 - 15 January 2027 €1,050 + VAT → 8 - 12 February 2027 €1,050 + VAT → 8 - 12 March 2027 €1,050 + VAT → 12 - 16 April 2027 €1,050 + VAT →

Why Attend

Petroleum projects involve significant capital investment, technical uncertainty, and exposure to market and operational risks. Traditional deterministic approaches often fall short in capturing the full range of possible outcomes.

This course introduces structured probabilistic techniques that enable professionals to quantify uncertainty, evaluate risk exposure, and make informed decisions. Participants will learn how to apply risk-based thinking to exploration, development, and production projects, improving both financial performance and operational resilience.

Course Objectives
  • Apply probabilistic methods to assess project risks
  • Model uncertainty using appropriate statistical distributions
  • Perform risk-based evaluations of petroleum projects
  • Use decision analysis tools to compare project alternatives
  • Interpret results from quantitative risk models
  • Integrate probabilistic analysis into project planning and investment decisions
Designed for

This program is intended for professionals involved in Oil and Gas.

  • Petroleum Engineers and Project Engineers
  • Project Managers in oil & gas projects
  • Risk and Reliability Engineers
  • Planning and Cost Control Professionals
  • Financial Analysts and Investment Decision-Makers
  • Professionals involved in exploration, development, and production
Course Methodology

The course combines practical learning with applied techniques through: - Real-world case studies from upstream, midstream, and downstream projects - Hands-on exercises in probabilistic risk assessment - Group discussions and scenario-based simulations - Step-by-step demonstrations of decision analysis tools - Practical frameworks for immediate workplace application

Course content
Day1

Fundamentals of Probabilistic Risk in Petroleum Projects

  • Overview of risk in exploration, development, and production
  • Deterministic vs. probabilistic approaches
  • Types of risks: subsurface, technical, economic, operational
  • Risk identification techniques and structuring uncertainty
  • Building a petroleum project risk register
  • Introduction to probability concepts and distributions
Day2

Quantitative Risk Assessment Techniques

  • Statistical foundations for probabilistic analysis
  • Defining input variables and uncertainty ranges
  • Probability distributions (normal, lognormal, triangular, etc.)
  • Sensitivity analysis and key risk drivers
  • Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation concepts
  • Practical exercises in quantitative risk modeling
Day3

Decision Analysis for Petroleum Investments

  • Decision-making frameworks in oil & gas
  • Decision trees and expected monetary value (EMV)
  • Risk vs. reward trade-offs in petroleum projects
  • Portfolio decision-making concepts
  • Value of information in exploration decisions
  • Case study: Drilling investment evaluation
Day4

Integrated Cost, Schedule & Production Risk Modeling

  • Linking cost, schedule, and production uncertainties
  • Modeling dependencies and correlations
  • Production forecasting under uncertainty
  • Scenario planning and stress testing
  • Risk mitigation strategies and optimization
  • Tools and software overview (conceptual)
Day5

Risk-Based Decision Making & Project Optimization

  • Embedding probabilistic analysis into project lifecycle
  • Risk-informed planning and budgeting
  • Communicating probabilistic results to stakeholders
  • Governance and reporting of risk in petroleum projects
  • Industry best practices and lessons learned
  • Final group case study and presentations
The certificate

SPARK Training Certificate of Completion is awarded to participants who attend and complete the full training course.

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